Pre-Galtonian philosophies[ edit ] The philosophy was most famously expounded by Platowho believed human reproduction should be monitored and controlled by the state.
Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity — technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history.
The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.
For complete details, see below. Until I return to a further explanation, however, do read the first sentence of this paragraph carefully. Now back to the future: Our forebears expected the future to be pretty much like their present, which had been pretty much like their past.
Although exponential trends did exist a thousand years ago, they were at that very early stage where an exponential trend is so flat that it looks like no trend at all. So their lack of expectations was largely fulfilled.
Today, in accordance with the common wisdom, everyone expects continuous technological progress and the social repercussions that follow. But the future will be far more surprising than most observers realize: Bill and I have been frequently paired in a variety of venues as pessimist and optimist respectively.
When people think of a future period, they intuitively assume that the current rate of progress will continue for future periods. However, careful consideration of the pace of technology shows that the rate of progress is not constant, but it is human nature to adapt to the changing pace, so the intuitive view is that the pace will continue at the current rate.
Even for those of us who have been around long enough to experience how the pace increases over time, our unexamined intuition nonetheless provides the impression that progress changes at the rate that we have experienced recently.
So even though the rate of progress in the very recent past e. It is typical, therefore, that even sophisticated commentators, when considering the future, extrapolate the current pace of change over the next 10 years or years to determine their expectations.
But a serious assessment of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential. In exponential growth, we find that a key measurement such as computational power is multiplied by a constant factor for each unit of time e.
Exponential growth is a feature of any evolutionary process, of which technology is a primary example. One can examine the data in different ways, on different time scales, and for a wide variety of technologies ranging from electronic to biological, and the acceleration of progress and growth applies.
What it clearly shows is that technology, particularly the pace of technological change, advances at least exponentially, not linearly, and has been doing so since the advent of technology, indeed since the advent of evolution on Earth. I emphasize this point because it is the most important failure that would-be prognosticators make in considering future trends.
That is why people tend to overestimate what can be achieved in the short term because we tend to leave out necessary detailsbut underestimate what can be achieved in the long term because the exponential growth is ignored. The Law of Accelerating Returns We can organize these observations into what I call the law of accelerating returns as follows: Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage.
As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time. In another positive feedback loop, as a particular evolutionary process e. This results in a second level of exponential growth i. Biological evolution is one such evolutionary process. Technological evolution is another such evolutionary process.
Indeed, the emergence of the first technology creating species resulted in the new evolutionary process of technology. Therefore, technological evolution is an outgrowth of—and a continuation of—biological evolution. A specific paradigm a method or approach to solving a problem, e.
When this happens, a paradigm shift i. If we apply these principles at the highest level of evolution on Earth, the first step, the creation of cells, introduced the paradigm of biology.
The subsequent emergence of DNA provided a digital method to record the results of evolutionary experiments. Then, the evolution of a species who combined rational thought with an opposable appendage i. The upcoming primary paradigm shift will be from biological thinking to a hybrid combining biological and nonbiological thinking.
If we examine the timing of these steps, we see that the process has continuously accelerated. The evolution of life forms required billions of years for the first steps e.
During the Cambrian explosion, major paradigm shifts took only tens of millions of years. Later on, Humanoids developed over a period of millions of years, and Homo sapiens over a period of only hundreds of thousands of years.
With the advent of a technology-creating species, the exponential pace became too fast for evolution through DNA-guided protein synthesis and moved on to human-created technology.
Technology goes beyond mere tool making; it is a process of creating ever more powerful technology using the tools from the previous round of innovation.CHAPTER ONE Ethnic Nationalism and Civic Nationalism.
The discrimination between civic nationalism and ethnic nationalism is common in writings on nationalism and nations, whether it be as the civic-ethnic division, the political-cultural, or the Western-Eastern division.
The earliest instances of what might today be called genetic algorithms appeared in the late s and early s, programmed on computers by evolutionary biologists who were explicitly seeking to model aspects of natural evolution.
Civil Rights Argumentative Essay About Same Sex Marriage.
This Argumentative essay will discuss the argument of same sex marriage. The contents are: meaning, brief background and thesis statement for the Introduction; for the Body of the discussion is the counter argument; and for the conclusion part: the summary and the restatement of the thesis statement.
The simple definition for genetic engineering according to CSIRO is “The use of modern biotechnology techniques to change genes of an organism, such as plant or animal.”(CSIRO, ) The techniques or steps to genetic engineering are quite technical.
Why the future doesn’t need us. Our most powerful 21st-century technologies – robotics, genetic engineering, and nanotech – are threatening to make humans an endangered species. From the. Conclusion In conclusion, Computer Law is a useful designation of specialized subject area in law, partly because it requires knowledge of arcane areas in law, and partly because it also requires an understanding of computer technology (i.e., hardware and software). This essay began with the observation that there is no such thing as computer law, just as there was no "law . Civil Rights Argumentative Essay About Same Sex Marriage. This Argumentative essay will discuss the argument of same sex marriage. The contents are: meaning, brief background and thesis statement for the Introduction; for the Body of the discussion is the counter argument; and for the conclusion part: the summary and the restatement of the thesis statement.
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Creating an Elite Class of Super Humans. by John P. Thomas Health Impact News. This is the first part of a two part series exploring the relationship between the controversial eugenics movement of the past and modern genetics.